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第27章 Future of Energy 能源的未来(11)

这是一个我们必须遵循全球规则手册的时代,是一个我们必须相互尊重的时代。作为个人来尊重,是的,作为一个有权决定自己身份的人,有权选择文化和信仰的个人。

因此,这就是在新世纪初我们的规则体系所面临的三大考验:集体安全考验;富国与穷国之间的团结考验;互相尊重各自的信仰与文化的考验。我知道,我们可以通过这些考验。

我知道我们可以将这个20世纪下半叶运作良好的体系继续保留下去,并作调整使它来适应21世纪。

不过,需要再次强调一下:我们需要美国的开明领导。所以我对美国毕业生说:不要辜负你们的国家,继续发扬美国在国际义务和国际领导地位上的优良传统。倾听来自其他国家的观点,认可它们的优点,同时记住,它们也想得到你所想要的:过上人格不受侮辱、人身安全不受侵犯的美好生活。美国人在60年前支持联合国成立时就知道我们都互相依赖。对来自其他国家的毕业生,我想说:回家告诉你的同胞们,目光不要局限于对于这个国家的肤浅成见上。不管你可能会对美国的某项政策持何种观点,你在这儿待了这么长的时间足够让你了解美国社会的活力,以及宽容的美国精神。

我想对你们所有人说:这是一个困难时期,但我们可以克服它。我们有太多需要感谢、值得骄傲的,为了后代着想我们也有很多必须保护的东西。

现在还不是放弃我们以规则为基础的国际体系的时候。让我们保护它,让我们改进它,让我们把它完整无缺地,甚至比以往任何时候都坚定地传承下去!2004级的同胞们,无论你们今天下午身在何处,希望你们都能到外面的广阔天地去,并有所作为。谢谢大家。

演讲人简介:

DonaldKaberuka(唐纳德·卡贝鲁卡)2005年任非洲开发银行行长1951年生于卢旺达北部,8岁时随父母先后流亡到乌干达和坦桑尼亚,后到英国读书他在格拉斯哥大学获经济学博士学位曾出任卢旺达财政和经济计划部长

第十章AFRICA-the Changing Face, the Face of the Future 非洲--日新月异,展望未来

Thank you Dean McCarthy for this invitation, an honor for me and the African Development Bank. My appreciation also to Professor Calestous Juma, Bridge Builders Conference Organizers and Participants, Members of the African Caucus, Faculty, Students, Friends and Guests of the Kennedy School.

I am proud to join you at this institution whose mission is to inspire and encourage young people to serve in Government and to be the bridges between academia and the larger world-a mission well accomplished. At the African Development Bank a number of the Alumni of the Kennedy School and Harvard are serving with devotion and distinction.

I am particularly glad to speak at this important event-the Bridge Builders Conference-and to meet with young leaders from different countries who are here to share their experience, in the social economic development of their communities and in domains as varied as microfinance, gender and HIV/Aids. The work you do empowering communities around the world is truly inspirational. You have asked me to speak about the role of leadership in facing challenges of development in Africa. I am glad to do so in the strong belief that no durable development is possible without a strong accountable leadership at all levels of society.

As I was preparing for this event, the words of a great American Statesman kept crossing my mind, these will be familiar to you. But let me quote:

“The world is very different now, for man holds in his mortal hands the power to abolish all forms of human poverty and all forms of human life.”

He went on:

“To those people in the huts and villages of half the globe struggling to break the bonds of mass misery we pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves…because it is right…”

This, you will not be surprised was the great statesman after whom thisprestigious school is named John F. Kennedy at his inauguration.

Over four decades later, the world is indeed a very different place. Unprecedented global prosperity. Across the world great strides have been made in fighting poverty, in Asia, in Latin America, and indeed parts of Africa. But today, despite this remarkable feat there remains millions of people-in huts and villages-still bound by misery, hunger, and deprivation. But there is a difference. Their faces will be indeed from parts of Asia and Latin America, but inevitably those faces will be African. This is a familiar story.

Today, I am here not to repeat or recast this familiar narrative but toshare with you a story-of hope and optimism-a story of Africa on the move. A story of a continent whose policy changes, improved governance and management has enabled it to take advantage of favorable international market developments-the strong demand for its commodities-and favorable international initiatives such as comprehensive debt relief.

While there remains pockets of instability and arbitrary rule, the democratic change is becoming the norm, and African led efforts continue to reduce the scope and duration of conflicts. As a result, Africa- generically speaking-is experiencing the longest period of growth since 50 years. The proportion of the population living in poverty is not falling fast enough but it is not increasing either. In spite of turmoil in the world markets and other uncertainties, I still expect our economic growth to be at 6.5% in 2008.

To illustrate this story, consider the case of the poorest parts of Africa the Sub-Sahara African Region. With the exception of one country, I expect macroeconomic conditions to remain benign, inflation contained in single digits, fiscal deficits in check, and the business climate to steadily improve. Foreign reserves will be at an all time high, 137 billion dollars, while external debt at 11% of GDP will be at a 30 year low. The comprehensive debt cancellation of 2005 has ignited unprecedented private investment flows totaling 22 billion dollars last year. As expected, most of the flows went into natural resources rich countries but we estimate that about 20% about 4.5 billion dollars would have been attracted to resources poor countries but with stable systems, strong predictable policies, which are well governed and secure. But we also estimate that probably another 1.2 billion dollars would have gone to some of the poorest landlocked resources poor countries. I have said nothing of the capital flight which is being reversed into significant levels of remittances perhaps closer to 17 billion dollars a year.

The issue for many I guess, would be how to reconcile this story of hopeand optimism with pervasive poverty, misery and instability on the continent. Indeed, there are wide discrepancies between and within countries; there are many laggards whose fortunes have not changed significantly. Put simply, not only do many countries start from a very low base including for several of them years of violent conflicts but population is growing and new challenges such as the impact of climate change and urbanization have emerged. These are obstacles which Africa and its leaders must confront rising inequalities, perceptions that growth benefits are not shared which feeds into instability and social tensions.

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